*The dollar eases in strength while Wall Street tumbles ahead of Trump’s tariff date. 

*Gold extended gain as the market sought for safe-haven investment. 

*Eyes on tomorrow's RBA’s rate decision that could harm the Aussie dollar’s strength. 

Market Summary

Market sentiment remains subdued ahead of Trump’s latest round of tariffs, set to take effect on April 2, fueling concerns over a potential global trade war. Safe-haven demand surged, pushing gold prices to a fresh record high as investors sought refuge not only from trade uncertainties but also from escalating geopolitical risks. Over the weekend, Trump issued a direct threat to bomb Iran should the country fail to comply with nuclear deal negotiations, further unsettling markets. Meanwhile, the ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine remains in limbo, casting additional uncertainty over global stability.

The flight to safety was evident in the bond market, where U.S. long-term yields plunged at the start of the week as investors flocked to haven assets. This risk-averse sentiment weighed on the U.S. dollar and Wall Street, with all three major indices closing sharply lower in the last session. The Dow Jones led the decline, tumbling more than 700 points on Friday as investors shied away from equities.

In the forex market, traders are closely watching tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision, where policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged. However, expectations of a more dovish stance in the near term could further pressure the Australian dollar.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is tracking Wall Street’s risk-off sentiment, with most digital assets facing strong downside pressure. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, tumbled 4% on Friday and continues to edge lower as investors reduce exposure to riskier assets.

Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (81.5%) VS -25 bps (18.5%) 

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) failed to sustain its breakout from a week-long consolidation range, signalling a potential bearish bias for the greenback. Despite initial gains, the dollar came under pressure as investors pivoted toward safe-haven assets, driving up demand for U.S. long-term Treasuries. This surge in bond purchases led to a sharp decline in Treasury yields, which weighed on the dollar, limiting its upside momentum.

The Dollar Index has dipped into its previous price consolidation range, suggesting a bearish bias for the index. The RSI dropped to near the oversold zone while the MACD was about to cross below the zero line, suggesting that a bearish momentum might be forming. 

Resistance level: 105.05, 106.25

Support level: 103.20, 101.75

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices continued their rally, hitting a fresh record high in the last session as market jitters intensified ahead of the imminent tariff imposition by Trump’s administration. Investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, driving demand for gold and pushing prices to new peaks. However, a doji candlestick emerged in Monday’s session, signaling potential indecision in the market. Traders should remain cautious of a possible pullback at these all-time high levels, as profit-taking or shifts in sentiment could trigger a temporary retracement.

Gold prices continue to edge higher without notable retracement, suggesting that the buying momentum with gold remains solid. The RSI remains in the overbought zone while the MACD is declining, suggesting that the bullish momentum remains strong. 

Resistance level:  3130.00, 3200.00

Support level: 3070.00, 3030.00

GBP/USD，H4

The British Pound traded higher against the U.S. dollar, maintaining its resilience against its peers in recent sessions. The pair capitalized on a weaker greenback, which came under pressure as market confidence in the U.S. currency waned due to concerns over Trump’s trade policy. Meanwhile, reports of improving UK job growth further bolstered the Pound Sterling, reinforcing its strength. With these supportive factors in place, the pair could extend its gains, provided market sentiment remains favourable for the British currency.

GBP/USD has found support and traded above its previous high level, suggesting a bullish bias for the pair. The RSI has risen above the 50 level, while the MACD is about to cross above from the zero line, suggesting a bullish momentum may be forming. 

Resistance level:  1.3000, 1.3100

Support level: 1.2875,1.2785

EUR/USD , H4

EUR/USD appears to have found support amid its recent downtrend, breaking above the 1.0810 resistance level and signaling a potential bullish reversal. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, weighed down by strong demand for U.S. Treasuries, which has led to a decline in yields. Meanwhile, euro traders are turning their attention to tomorrow’s Eurozone CPI reading. A stronger-than-expected inflation print could further bolster the euro, potentially allowing the pair to extend its gains.

The pair has broken above its previous high level, suggesting a bullish trend reversal. The RSI is gaining while the MACD approaches the zero line from below, suggesting that the bearish momentum is vanishing. 

Resistance level: 1.0956, 1.1075

Support level: 1.0806, 1.0672

AUD/USD, H4

The AUD/USD pair remains relatively stable ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate decision scheduled for tomorrow. While the market widely anticipates that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged, expectations are building for a more dovish shift in policy guidance. Should the RBA governor signal a softer stance on future monetary policy, it could weigh on the Australian dollar, potentially triggering a sharp decline in the pair. Traders will be closely watching the policy statement for any indications of a shift in the central bank's outlook.

The pair has traded sideways in the recent session, in a lower-to-high pattern, suggesting a bearish bias. The RSI is kept below the 50 level, while the MACD is flowing flat along with the zero line, suggesting that bearish momentum may be forming. 

Resistance level: 0.6330, 0.6370

Support level: 0.6278, 0.6238

Crude Oil, H4: 

Oil prices are encountering strong selling pressure near the $70.00 mark, where they faced rejection and underwent a technical retracement. In the oil market, traders are closely monitoring the evolving U.S.-Russia relationship, particularly after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Russian oil should a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal remain unsigned. The deterioration of diplomatic ties between the two nations raises concerns over potential supply disruptions, which could, in turn, drive oil prices higher. Market participants will be watching for any further geopolitical developments that could impact global oil supply and demand dynamics.

Oil price faced a technical retracement after its rally from its recent low level. Should the oil price fail to defend above the 68.35 mark, it could be a bearish signal for the pair. The RSI is sliding, while the MACD has a deadly cross on the above, suggesting that the bullish momentum is vanishing. 

Resistance level: 70.50, 71.80

Support level: 67.70, 66.15