*Markets will be watching the U.S. GDP and PCE before Trump's trade policies take effect on April 2nd. 

*Gold prices ease while the dollar strengthens and mitigates geopolitical risk in the euro region. 

*Oil prices are forecasted to slide as the Ukraine- Russia ceasefire deal may increase Russia's oil supply to the global market. 

Market Summary

The U.S. financial market is bracing for heightened volatility as investors await key announcements from the Trump administration regarding trade policies, with any unexpected remarks from the President having the potential to shift market direction. Beyond trade uncertainties, market participants are also closely watching upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE data, which will provide crucial insights into the strength of the U.S. economy and its implications for Wall Street and the dollar.

In the commodity market, traders are monitoring developments in the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations. Gold prices retreated in the last session as markets perceived progress in the talks, reducing demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, oil prices remain under pressure, with WTI struggling to break above the $70 mark. The market anticipates that a ceasefire deal could lead to an increase in Russian oil supply, potentially weighing on global crude prices in the near term.

Current rate hike bets on 7th May Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (86.4%) VS -25 bps (13.6%) 

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

The US Dollar Index has gained for three consecutive days, rising from a five-month low of 103.19 to around 104.01, fueled by the Fed’s hawkish stance and the impact of trade uncertainties.The index climbed 0.33% to 104.13, supported by rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting 4.252%, further supporting the dollar’s strength. Although the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year, its "no rush to cut" rhetoric has bolstered the dollar. 

The index is consolidating around 104.000, with key resistance at 105.036 and support at 103.201. A breakout above 105.036 could extend gains toward 106.268, while a drop below support may trigger further losses. The RSI continued to climb while MACD broke above from the zero line, suggesting a bullish bias for the index. 

Resistance level: 105.036, 106.268

Support level: 103.201,101.722

XAU/USD, H4

Gold prices retreated slightly due to technical correction and profit-taking. In the short term, gold is expected to consolidate within a range as investors remain in a wait-and-see mode ahead of major global events, including Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations and potential US tariff measures. Improved trade or ceasefire negotiations could boost risk appetite, leading investors to shift toward higher-risk assets, which may diminish gold’s safe-haven appeal. Conversely, any escalation in geopolitical tensions or worsening trade relations could drive renewed demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold prices are trading flat while currently testing the resistance level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 47, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains after breakout since the RSI rebounded sharply from oversold territory. 

Resistance level:  3030.00, 3055.00

Support level: 3005.00, 2985.00

GBP/USD，H4

The GBP/USD pair has broken below its uptrend support level, posting a weekly net loss and signaling a bearish bias. The U.S. dollar has regained strength after weeks of lackluster performance, reacting to President Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including the proposed reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. Meanwhile, Pound Sterling traders are closely watching today’s UK PMI reading, which could provide some support for the pair if the data surprises to the upside.

The GBP/USD pair has a structural break and slid to its weekly low, suggesting a bearish bias for the pair. The RSI is approaching the oversold zone, while the MACD has broken below the zero line, suggesting that bearish momentum may be forming. 

Resistance level:  1.3000, 1.3105

Support level: 1.2875, 1.2785

USD/CAD , H4

The Canadian dollar is on the defensive as trade uncertainty and rising U.S. Treasury yields fuel demand for the greenback. With U.S. reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, investors remain cautious, while the Fed wait-and-see approach reinforces expectations of prolonged higher rates, driving capital into USD assets. Adding to CAD’s challenges, political uncertainty ahead of Canada’s April 28 election is injecting fresh volatility. Opposition leader,  Mark Carney is set to challenge Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, with markets weighing the inflationary risks of potential fiscal expansion. If the Fed pivots dovish, CAD could find relief, but for now, risk-off sentiment keeps USD/CAD tilted higher.

The USD/CAD pair is testing resistance at 1.4356 as it continues to rebound from the 1.4330 support level. A breakout above this resistance could reinforce the bullish outlook. Both the RSI and MACD are holding steady, with the RSI at 55, indicating neutral momentum with a slight bullish bias. 

Resistance level: 1.4356, 1.4399

Support level: 1.4315, 1.4280

USD/JPY, H4

The USD/JPY pair has recovered from its previous losses and is now approaching its recent high near the 150.00 mark. A breakout above this key level would signal renewed bullish momentum for the pair. The Japanese yen struggled to sustain its earlier gains despite last week’s 3% CPI reading, which initially reinforced hawkish expectations for the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has regained strength following the announcement of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on major trade partners, fueling USD/JPY’s upward movement.

USD/JPY has found support at the 148.30 support level and is currently testing its key resistance level at the near 150.00 mark. A break above this level should be a bullish signal for the pair. The RSI is hovering near the 50 level, while the MACD shows signs of rebounding from the zero line, suggesting that the bullish momentum remains intact with the pair. 

Resistance level: 151.35, 152.75

Support level: 149.25, 148.30

HK50, H4: 

The Hang Seng Index edged lower after Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned that China is prepared for “shocks that exceed expectations”, as the world braces for potential new tariffs from US President Donald Trump next month. Li emphasized that “instability and uncertainty are on the upswing”, urging nations to open up markets and enhance resource-sharing to counter rising economic challenges.

HK50 is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 45, suggesting the index might extend its losses since the RSI stays below the midline. 

Resistance level: 23795.00, 24670.00

Support level: 22635.00, 21380.00

Crude Oil, H4

Crude Oil prices edged higher as OPEC+ supply constraints and fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran tightened market conditions. WTI settled at $68.28 per barrel, up 0.31%, while Brent gained 0.22% to close at $72.16. Brent crude oil remains volatile, fluctuating between $72.39 and $70.18, as falling U.S. fuel inventories and geopolitical risks provide support. However, a stronger dollar and lingering oversupply concerns have limited upside momentum. While U.S. sanctions on Iran briefly lifted prices, the impact is expected to fade.

Oil prices are now testing their resistance at their recent high of 68.40; a break to the new high should be a bullish signal for oil. Both the RSI and MACD have been moving in an upward trend manner, suggesting that bullish momentum is gaining, which is in line with the bullish bias view.

Resistance level: 68.40, 69.03

Support level: 67.80, 66.36